Blog Archives

06 Jul 2015

Hold on to your hat: Grexit approaches
Tom Elliott

Sunday's 'No' vote by Greece makes Grexit more likely, despite a majority of Greeks apparently in favour of remaining in the Euro. Apparently many voted 'No' believing they were some voting for better terms for Greece within the euro. Didn't they hear what Eurogroup ministers were telling them? I suggest the balance of probability is Grexit rather than remaining in the euro. Read more

08 Jul 2015

July budget: Osborne rolls back the state
Tom Elliott

Chancellor George Osborne has announced a budget in which he detailed how he intends to reach his goal of a budget surplus by 2020 (from the current £90bn approx. deficit). It was political and ambitious. A cynic might add that if he can achieve a surplus, or get close to one, by 2019-20, he will be nicely placed for a large tax give-away ahead of the 2020 election. Read more

16 Jul 2015

Market review and outlook for Q3 2015
Tom Elliott

The same themes that led to broadly flat markets in the second quarter are likely to persist in the third quarter. Dominating these is uncertainty over the timing and the effect of the Fed's first rate hike since 2006. A neutral asset allocation strategy is perfectly acceptable by way of response, but I would favour active bets that overweight Europe ex UK and Japanese stocks and a short duration bias in fixed income. Read more

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