Blog Archives

01 Dec 2014

The euro is not necessarily doomed
Tom Elliott

The euro fails in a basic theoretical test of what makes an optimal currency area (OCA). Closer political and fiscal union may help relive the euro of its problematic. half-built construction. Two institutional reforms are particularly important: first, the ECB needs to acquire lender of last resort powers. Second a system of temporary fiscal transfers need to be built to help alleviate local economic shocks caused by a one-size-fits-all monetary policy. Read more

05 Dec 2014

The UK Chancellor’s Autumn statement of 3rd December
Tom Elliott

George Osborne continues to do a believable job in presenting the government as guardians of sound fiscal policy. But with health, education and overseas aid off-limits for spending cuts, bringing the £91bn deficit down to zero will entail substantial cuts on all remaining Whitehall departments. Read more

12 Dec 2014

A 2014 review and outlook of the UAE stock market
Tom Elliott

The UAE stock markets have had a volatile year. First they were promoted to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, then a summer market sell-off was followed by a convincing recovery rally, but the year is ending with falling oil prices undermining year-to-date gains. The near-term future is oil-price dependent, but long term structural changes make the region interesting for investors. Read more

16 Dec 2014

The two different factors behind the falling oil price
Tom Elliott

Separating demand/supply factors in the weak oil prices, from the foreign policy goals of Saudi Arabia, is complicated. While both factors will eventually self-correct, it is impossible to know when or at what level the oil price will be before we see it happen Read more

17 Dec 2014

Investment outlook for 2015: modest expectations
Tom Elliott

Modest gains are expected on global stock markets in 2015 against a background of continuing strong growth focused in the larger Anglo-Saxon economies but disappointing growth in the euro zone and Japan. A rise in volatility and in political risk may favour defensive sectors and those able to benefit from lower oil prices. Read more

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